Thursday, February 17, 2011

The Day After Tomorrow Before Today

Well, "Albertgeddon" has come and gone.  Finally.  Everybody in St. Louis okay?  All present and accounted for?  Looks like there was minimal damage.

There is a sense of relief even if no contract extension was signed.  It's better than not knowing what's going to happen.

Much like Cardinals skipper, Tony La Russa, I like to let things digest for a night. He doesn't like to address a player or fellow coach immediately after a loss in regards to something he may be upset about until the next day to control his emotions.

The Albert contract deadline certainly had some emotions involved. It also gave me a chance to hear from Pujols himself. You know, the guy whose life path will be determined by this contract. Might as well hear from him first right?

Pujols said he wants to be a Cardinal for life. Jason Stark is right to mention he didn't say, "at any price."

But Pujols has to realized who he's dealing with. The Cardinals don't ask for a "home-town discount" because the feel they deserve it, or that the player should be willing to take less money for the privilege of playing for the St. Louis Cardinals. They've signed or offered other all-stars less money because they have to.

They are still a small-market team that can have a $100+ million dollar pay roll because of their attendance. They are 10th in profits and 10th in payroll. So it's not like they're getting by with being miserly or cheap. They're being smart.

Should Pujols go after top dollar? Sure, it's his life, his prerogative, and his contract. He's a very charitable guy, and probably has that in mind in these negotiations as well.

But I hope he understands saying he wants to be a Cardinal for life, while potentially asking for a contract that isn't realistic for St. Louis is a bit misleading to fans.

Pujols has never been on any other MLB team. And he's never had a sales pitch from another team or been wined and dined by them... well, just dined in Pujols' case. But he's never trudged through a season that was over by August either. Even the 2007 hangover season had life in September.

Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Mark McGwire, Chris Carpenter, Matt Holliday and others had been elsewhere before, and had experienced less than desirable situations. To them it was worth a few million less than what they could have demanded in free agency or from another big-market team in Holliday's case to stick around with the Cardinals.

Perhaps though we're talking about more than a few million. Tough to know the truth. Pujols scoffed at the idea of him demanding 10 years and $300 million as has been reported.

"That's so funny because me and my agent talked every other day about you guys throwing numbers out there," Pujols said. "Assuming the Cardinals offered this and 'Albert is asking for 10 years' and we just laughed about it. I'm pretty sure the Cardinals are too because you guys don't have any clue. You guys are way off on what the numbers are you guys are throwing out there."

That's certainly reassuring. It does show he isn't making unrealistic demands.

I would have an entire omelet on my face if he were after telling friends I thought he'd sign for around $23 to $25 million before the Ryan Howard extension. I still thought there was a possibility he'd ask for A-Rod money, but took his statement of, "I want to be a Cardinal for life," seriously. But perhaps we're only talking about a few million as the difference there as well.

Maybe he is still asking for A-Rod money of roughly $27 million per year. We've all assumed he wants to at least be paid as well as Ryan Howard. Pujols reportedly turned down $21 million per year over eight seasons. Which if is true, is lower than I would offer. Even though it's not my money to spend, I am realistic about the current baseball market.

I can't blame Pujols for asking for Ryan Howard money. But I also can't blame the Cardinals for thinking the Ryan Howard deal is an overpay as well and having the team's long-term financial security in mind.

But if Pujols really wants to stay with the Cardinals, why demand an amount the Cards feel is unfair? Will Pujols feel like he chickened out by not demanding for more? Will it be embarrassing for him to be considered the best hitter in the game, but not the highest paid at his position? Is his pride - one of the seven deadly sins - part of his motivation?

Getting this next contract shouldn't be a another competition for a competitive guy like Albert. It should be about finding the right compromise for him and the Cardinals, so he can remain on a competitive team without having to uproot. The higher paying job isn't always the best one to take.

I can't think of one Cardinal who left the team strictly for more money who ended up in a far better situation taking the cash St. Louis couldn't give them. Anyone? Seriously, please tell me if you can think of one.

They only ones I can think of would be Edgar Renteria or J.D. Drew. But those are a mixed bag at best. I don't think I could consider either to be distinctly better off leaving St. Louis.

J.D. Drew is the Adrian Beltre of outfielders, and Renteria was shipped out of Boston after one season.

Renteria did well in Atlanta, struggled in Detroit, and didn't stay healthy in San Francisco outside of a remarkable playoff run. Both he and Drew won titles and had some success, but would any of that had been better than staying in St. Louis and winning a World Series in 2006? Renteria's replacement got hot and won a World Series MVP himself after all.

But like Pujols said, this is all part of negotiations. There's a back and forth in negotiations that happens. He should start high, the Cardinals should start low, and eventually, hopefully, they meet near the middle. The Cardinals unfortunately drug their feet on this, but are doing what a team normally does of trying to start off as low as possible.

They're taking an awful risk by letting the negotiations get to the post-World Series negotiating window. One team who wants to make a splash could throw a ton of money at him. Pujols' options are slightly limited in comparison to previous seasons, but there's still enough teams with a spot and money available. The Yankees could could always make a spot available too.

But again, we may be talking about a difference of a few million that Albert is willing to trade off. Perhaps $28 million from the Cubs is a wash with $25 million from the Cardinals, in which he would most likely choose the Cardinals.

So the Cardinals didn't make this deadline, but there are still more to be made. And though Pujols' comments may seem slightly contradictory, he did reassure fans he's not out to top the biggest, most foolish contract in baseball history.

The wild card in all of this is Pujols' agent Dan Lazano. He broke out on his own this past year, a la Jerry Maguire, leaving the Beverly Hills Sports Council. He needs a big splash and big contract to put his business on the map.

What's he telling Albert? Is he telling Pujols he can get a mega deal, and that he should try for it? It seems as if it's been his intention all along to take this to free agency. Pujols considers Lazano a friend and would like to help him out as much Pujols would like to take care of himself.

Lazano is who I'm directing my angst towards, as I really dislike agents, if I can make any recommendations on that to Cardinals fans.

Basically, we're a tiny step closer to an extension than we were before the spring training deadline. The negotiations haven't gone horribly wrong, as Pujols has no ill will towards Cardinal management, and still wants to try to work out a deal after the season.

I've said all along the negotiations would have to take a really bad tone for Pujols to consider signing with the Cubs. He'd have to hate the Cardinals to accept being hated by Cardinal fans. And that after all is the biggest fear of Cards fans in letting Pujols go to free agency.

Much like when Pujols is at the plate, he is trying to be patient in these negotiations and see every pitch. He usually makes good contact and pleases Cardinal fans. We just have to sit back, and hope that trend continues.

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Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Cardinals Are Paying the Price for Other Teams' Foolish Spending

The St. Louis Cardinals have tried to compete with the big market teams when it comes to free agent spending, and even more so when retaining their own core players. But they still have fiscal limitations.

The Cardinals are 24th in market size amongst the 30 MLB teams.

However, they are known for their extremely loyal fan base, and rank fourth in the majors in total attendance and attendance per game. This brings their total revenue after considering all revenue sources to tenth in the majors.

They’ve paid good money to core players when they deserve it, and when it’s at a price the Cards think the player is worth.

Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, and Albert Pujols all received very good deals for themselves, and also a contract the Cardinals felt was fair. Their ability to re-sign players to long-term, lucrative contracts depends entirely on their ability to draw fans.

Though those all-star players were paid handsomely by the Cardinals, they do not always pay players based on what the market dictates or succumb to matching a price another team is willing to pay that they feel is too high. Matt Holliday is a rare exception to the current ownership’s history since he actually reached free agency, and they coveted his bat in the lineup.

Even the Kyle Lohse contract was based on what they thought was a decent price for a pitcher coming off of a good 2008 season he had working with Dave Duncan for the first time. Though most of us have our doubts, a healthy Lohse could make the last two seasons of that four-year contract somewhat worth while.

Lohse and Holliday are both represented by Scott Boras, who pushes the salary envelope, encourages his players to chase the highest dollar, and has pilfered pretty much every team baseball. We’ll get to more on him shortly.

But players like Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, David Eckstein, Mark Grudzielanek, Edgar Renteria, Fernando Vina, and others had higher offers from other teams, and the Cardinals have been fine with bowing out when they feel a team is offering a player more than he’s worth.

They didn’t feel comfortable guaranteeing free agent A.J. Burnett a fifth year before he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays. They exited the bidding for Brian Fuentes when it became apparent they would have to pay more than the Anaheim Angels were offering in order to lure Fuentes away from playing near his home. Both of those decisions worked out well for the Cardinals.

The Price of Greatness

This brings us to the conundrum they face when trying to make the best player in baseball, the highest paid player in baseball.

In order to make Albert Pujols the highest paid player, the Cardinals will have to top the current salary of New York Yankees third basemen Alex Rodriguez, which averages out to roughly $27.5 million a year.

Boras engineered a 10-year $252 million dollar contract for Rodriguez from the Texas Rangers in 2001 when he hit free agency. He encouraged Rodriguez to take that deal over a lesser one offered by the New York Mets, a decision A-Rod would eventually regret.

That dwarfed the eight-year $121 million dollar contract Mike Hampton received from the Colorado Rockies just earlier that offseason, which did not work out too well for the Rockies either.

The Rangers were handcuffed by the Rodriguez contract. They couldn’t acquire starting pitching, and finished last in the AL West every year with A-Rod. He put up big, MVP numbers, but it never translated into wins, and he was traded to the Yankees in 2004.

Former Rangers owner Tom Hicks would eventually sell the team after filing for bankruptcy and borrowing money from Major League Baseball to make payroll.

After Boras clumsily opted Rodriguez out of the final year of his Rangers contract in 2007, A-Rod went around Boras to initiate the 10-year $275 million deal. It also includes incentives for achieving home run milestones that could bring the deal up to $305 million total.

Rodriguez was considered the best player in baseball and was still in his late prime when the Yankees resigned him. However, we would later learn he did steroids during various points in his career, when in 2009 Rodriguez admitted using them during a more “loosy-goosey” era in baseball after accusations of his use by others.

The use of steroids most likely pumped up what would have still been very good to great seasons for A-Rod, to historically gaudy numbers for a short stop and even a third baseman. Nonetheless it creates doubt as to whether or not he really was the best player in baseball, and if he should have been paid as such.

But the Yankees are the Yankees. They play in New York, have a shiny, new, massive stadium, their own cable network, and are immune to dead money crippling their payroll.

The Cardinals are not the Yankees. They play in a much smaller market and do not pull in the same non-attendance-oriented revenue.

Since the A-Rod signed that contract, the Philadelphia Phillies have signed one-dimensional, but powerful first baseman Ryan Howard to a five-year $125 million dollar extension that won’t even begin until after this season when Howard will be 32 years old.

First baseman Mark Teixeira signed an eight-year $180 million contract with the Yankees, short stop Troy Tulowitzki signed a 10-year $158 million contract to remain in Colorado, Carl Crawford jumped to the Red Sox for seven years and $142 million, and the biggest overpay of them all was for 31-year-old Jayson Werth by the Nationals for seven years and $126 million.

None of those contracts were the doing of the St. Louis Cardinals, and it makes their $120 million over seven years - with and option for and eighth - for Matt Holliday look like a bargain.

One mega contract that at least seems fair in the current era of baseball salaries is catcher Joe Mauer’s eight-year, $184 million deal, since he is a rare combination of exceptional offense and defense at his position. He probably could have commanded even more in free agency, but opted to remain with his home-town Twins.

All of these contracts have an affect on Pujols’ negotiations due to either their length or annual value, since they are a starting point for a contract of a position player in high demand.

Though all good players in their own right, none of the aforementioned position players comes close to matching the production of Pujols. Only nine players in baseball history have had Pujols’ average season even once in their careers according to Joe Posnanski.

Real Talk

Pujols is the best player in baseball, but it’s unfortunate that the Cardinals are expected to pay him as such based on a horrible, franchise-crippling contract of a player whose performance was enhanced beyond what Major League Baseball currently allows and should have all along.

But the situation is what it is, and the Cardinals have to know what the expectations are from Pujols’ camp. The real world isn’t an ideal world, and the Cardinals can’t operate in a vacuum.

They have to find the right compromise with Pujols, either in years or in average annual value because he is a special case, and the heart of their franchise. He’s already a historic player, and a seat filler for a team dependent on it’s attendance clearing three million fans per season. They need to come up with a counter offer and get the ball rolling, because time is running out.

Pujols, however, has to be aware of the Cardinals limitations and their view of other contracts around the majors if he really wants to remain a Cardinal as he says.

Sure, he’s been underpaid since he’s become a machine-like, metronome of production, and other players salaries have since exceeded his. But he didn’t have to sign that contract at age 24, buying out his arbitration and free-agent years after three stellar seasons in the majors.

He signed that deal, and can’t blame the Cardinals for being smart, nor should he feel he’s owed more since other contracts passed up his in the meantime.

Albert will be 32 years old when his extension starts, and to demand 10 years at $300 million a year is unrealistic, IF that’s what his agent is really demanding, regardless of how well he trains. And it doesn’t match the public M.O. of Pujols who says his top priority isn’t money.

Edmonds, Rolen, Jason Isringhausen, Renteria, Mark McGwire and others, could have commanded more money in free agency than they did in staying with the Cardinals. But they had all been on other teams before, and knew the grass isn’t always greener on the other side.

Pujols hasn’t had that opportunity to look around at other back yards, and I’m sure he’s curious. But the St. Louis Cardinals have more to offer than money, and Pujols has to realize that.

Pujols has more to offer the Cardinals than just run production, and they have to realize that. He generates attendance revenue, sells merchandise, and draws attention to the Cardinals. They both need each other, and need to get this deal done.

The Cardinals have done a great job of being fiscally responsible in an era where a lot franchises foolishly throw money around. But for the sake of this season and success in future seasons, signing Albert is not only still fiscally responsible, but absolutely necessary.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Wading Through Waves of Albert Pujols Coverage

If you follow any article-culling service about the St. Louis Cardinals, baseball, or sports in general, either via Twitter or an RSS feed, you’ve been inundated by Albert Pujols articles in the past few months.

Cardinals blogs, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, other local newspapers, ESPN, Fox Sports, Sports Illustrated, The MLB Network, The Bleacher Report, the Onion, you name it, they’ve all had their pieces on Albert Pujols’ contract negotiations.

Some articles were Pujols pieces on Pujols pieces that had gathered up and summarized other Pujols pieces. Some were even updates on potential Pujols pieces.

And why not? Every sports journalist has to cover the biggest pending free agent in baseball history, right?

Even I felt like I had to write one. I had a draft ready to go as soon as the playoffs ended. It wasn’t just written as a journalist, but also as a Cards fan trying refute, share or spin anything I felt obligated too.

I started out addressing the crazy idea of trading Pujols. Big-market teams needing a first basemen began to drop in number, making my article even easier to write.

But then the daily deluge of Pujols articles began. I became a bit nauseated and overwhelmed by the waves of Pujols contract coverage, and lost the desire to publish my article. I wondered if there was there any angle left to cover.

I was especially overwhelmed by the “Potential, Pujols Free Agent Destination” pieces. Talk about a flooded market. A lot of them just made me laugh, while others were very well thought out.

But that speculation is still a season away, and it depends on the big “if” of Pujols not signing an extension by the spring. We all handicapped the Knicks or Nets as LeBron James’ free agent destinations at this time last year after all.

Sure it’s fun, gives fans in other markets hope, and is all the rage right now, but to speculate on Pujols’ possible destinations if he were to leave the Cardinals would be just that, speculation. I avoided the LeBron speculation as much as possible last year, and I’m doing it again now with Pujols.

The Cardinals and Pujols’ agents have kept quiet on the negotiations just as Pujols asked them to, and it’s driving the public and media crazy. There is a void in information and updates that we’ve tried to fill with the speculation pieces and value estimations.

So what’s left to cover in the contract negotiations? Perhaps one final attempt to wrap it all up as spring training approaches? Let’s give a shot.

What we know

Along with the deadline put forward by Pujols and his representation to have a contract extension by spring training or he will cut off negotiations, we officially know that Albert Pujols will be a Cardinal for the 2011 season.

Most of us suspected as much, and it was probably never even in question. Pujols has earned the power to veto any trade due to his time in the league and with the Cardinals, and he might as well use it. He wants to be a Cardinal, but also wants a fair contract for his value.

If Pujols won’t negotiate a contract extension with the Cardinals during the season to avoid the distraction, he wouldn’t do it with a team he’d be traded to. And any team willing to give up the haul of players St. Louis could demand in return for Albert, would want to have an extension in place with Pujols.

I don’t think the Cardinals ever entertained the idea of trading him either, not with Tony La Russa at the helm for at least one more season.

Sure the Cards could get a couple of very good major leaguers along with three to four top prospects from the Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Mets or even the Rangers. That might work in a video game, but I’m sure they’d rather stick it out with the best player in baseball - and the heart of their team - for another season.

They’d rather take another shot at signing him after this season, wooing him to stay with the intangibles of St. Louis even if not officially negotiating a contract during the year. They could also pick up where they left off in the negotiations if running out of time was the only hang up to getting a deal done.

I’m sure the Cardinals will take some flack for not resigning Pujols sooner and putting themselves in this situation. But Pujols’ camp knows what they’re doing. They weren’t pushing for the extension last season, knowing they could play the no-trade card this year.

Trading Pujols seemed like an unrealistic fan demand anyway, with no idea of who the trade would involve. The trade-him-if-you-can’t-sign-him movement oddly came from the same fans who have a win-now philosophy too.

This isn’t like dealing Herschel Walker. It’s not even like dealing CC Sabathia or Zach Greike. St. Louis isn’t New York, but it’s not a baseball market suited for rebuilding, nor is the team set up that way contractually or managerially.

I still feel Pujols will stay, and that the negotiations will go right up until spring training. But I am less confident now than I have been at any point. I felt there was a 92% chance of him resigning when the offseason began. Now I’d probably put the chances of him resigning at around 70% judging by the contract numbers being thrown around.

Hopefully something comes along to spike my confidence back up. But the silent negotiations that create a lack of updates, also gives me little to go on when trying to make an estimate on the likelihood of him resigning with the Cardinals.

I am at least still very confident the negotiations would have to go horribly wrong for Pujols to end up a Cub next season. He’d have to hate the Cardinals to want to be hated by Cards fans.

Albert is not LeBron James, even if they’re following the same pattern of starting up a twitter page and website as they approach free agency. Pujols also released a new logo that many of us St. Louisans thought looked a lot like James’.

I don’t think Pujols could deal with being the villain in St. Louis the way LeBron is in Cleveland, and Albert has a lot more going for him in his current city than James did.

There’s a good chance Pujols could break the bank with the Cubs, but there’s also a very good chance he would be miserable as a lovable loser, and I’m pretty sure he’s aware of that.

Also, the Pujols family moved to New York when they first came to the states and it was too much city for them and teenage Albert. So I have to rule out the Mets at this point to further address all of the potential-destination pieces.

Pujols asked the Cardinals to keep the negotiations quiet. He didn’t want the public back-and-forth that often comes with contract negotiations like this. He didn’t want his situation resembling Derek Jeter’s, Mark Texeira’s, Matt Holliday’s or especially LeBron James’ contract negotiations.

And Pujols has taken heat for his demand for silence. Another example of the catch 22 of trying to do the right thing and still catching flack for it, like Ricky Williams’ rookie contract with the Saints, or steroid use admissions.

What we don’t know

Perhaps this decree of silence is a test put forth by Pujols’ camp. Not only is it to avoid public mud slinging and negotiating, but if the Cardinals can avoid taking the bait as an organization to leak info about the negotiations, maybe that’s something Pujols will appreciate and wants to see from the Cardinals.

We also only have vague ideas and rumors of what kind of contract Pujols and his agents are asking for.

All of baseball has been speculating as to what kind of contract he’ll get based on others that have recently been inked by Joe Mauer, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Mark Texeira, and Jayson Werth.

Most figure it will at least rival the contract of Alex Rodriguez. Maybe it will be configured differently or with deferred money. Perhaps it will contain more years than salary in comparison to A-Rod’s, or the other way around.

We’ve heard Pujols’ camp has asked for 10 years and $300 mil as a starting point in the negotiations. We’ve been told the Cardinals are more receptive to a seven year deal with an average annual value between $25-$28 mil.

Personally, I could deal with $27-$30 mil per year, but would want to keep it in the seven-year range. However, I'm not responsible for the Cardinals payroll or their stadium debts, so I can understand their apprehension and desire to creatively structure the contract.

Guaranteeing Albert $30 mil per season into his early 40s is risky. He trains harder than any other player in the majors, but the slowdown will eventually happen and the injury risk will rise.

Albert’s peers are a select group. Players like Ted Williams, Willie Mayes, Hank Aaron, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, and Stan Musial are the players he truly compares to at this stage of his career.

DiMaggio and Gehrig remained productive through age 35 before injuries and illness stopped them respectively. Aaron, Musial, and Mayes were productive through age 40. Williams remained productive through age 39 and had a big bounce-back year at age 41.

So the potential is there for Albert to remain very valuable to the Cardinals from ages 36 through 42. But let’s not confuse valuable and productive with the gaudy numbers that deserve being paid the highest salary in the majors. Even the greats with whom Pujols production matches or exceeds right now saw a decline in their power numbers and games played in their later years.

However, I’m sure his agent is making the case Pujols deserves $30 mil per season once past his prime since he’s been relatively underpaid during his prime of putting up very gaudy numbers. They will also bring up Pujols ability to draw fans while chasing records in his twilight like the other aforementioned legends did.

Musial requested a pay cut in 1960 from $100,000 to $75,000 due to his down season in ’59. If Albert’s willing do to that with his $30 mil per year, then I’ve got no problem offering a 10-year deal.

However, Musial felt his decline was due to improper conditioning at his age before players trained year round, and we know that won’t be a problem for Pujols.

No contract has touched the annual value of A-Rod's, but there is doubt as to whether or not he is truly the best player in baseball after an admission of steroid use and a downturn in production. There isn’t any doubt when it comes to Pujols, even if he turns 32 when the extension would start.

What comes next?

Either Pujols will sign an extension by the start of spring training, ending the fervent speculation, or this will drag on another season. Whether or not it becomes a distraction depends on how much he’s asked about it by the media and if he extends a no-contract-talk mandate.

If he resigns with the Cardinals, they will continue with their plan of retaining their core players and producing cheap talent from their drafts. If he doesn’t sign an extension, they will have roughly $25 mil per season to play with to sign a few free agents.

The ripple effect Albert’s next deal could have on contracts in the future is now being touched on and is worth examining. Does his extension change how rich baseball contracts can be when the best player in baseball’s price is established in his prime?

It all depends if GMs and owners are willing to put their foot down. Will they say, “No, this is how much the best player in baseball costs, and your guy’s not better than him.”

Will they be able to resist boisterous claims by agents that their player will be better than Pujols or that their client plays a more premium position?

If the owners hold their ground, they can finally change the direction of contracts in baseball. It will be there in dollars, signed on the dotted line by Albert Pujols, the best player in baseball.

So here we are. Waiting and waiting. Driven mad by the silence.

It harkens back to a day before immediate access to information and multiple media outlets gave us play-by-play on negotiations like this. A time a 35 year old like myself can only vaguely remember. Contracts still got done back then, and baseball players still played.

Pujols himself is a throwback to simpler times in the way he carries himself in public, treats the people in his life, and expresses his faith. I think his old-school style will continue as he’ll stay with the team that drafted him, when he’s ready, and on his terms.


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